Now I’ve remembered – how did we do?
Here’s the post – written late December 2013, after a year of saturation, expansion and crashes from the OCR world.
So. How did we get on? Here’s the predictions:
The big three will level off in North America.
While I’m not privy to attendee numbers, it was clear Spartan had gotten themselves stuck in a rut, and people were noticing. Meanwhile, Warrior Dash didn’t change a thing, and their formula continued to win over newbies and fun runners in droves. Tough Mudder seemed to put great events with new stuff – and World Toughest Mudder knocked it out of the park.
Verdict: Partially right
Fast expanding races will back track.
2013 saw a trend of races putting on huge calendars, then falling flat on their faces as they tried to fill them. Superhero Scramble being the post child for terrible expansion plans – but mirrored in other regions to different levels. No one who claimed to have 15, 20, 25 events in 2014 actually managed to do it. Meanwhile, CMC, Savage Race and others with more modest, sane plans are still here, putting on their 5 or 10 regional races, with great success.
Verdict: Nailed it.
Local races will also thrive, as will fixed venue races.
Yep. Check the success of #racelocal and it’s expansion in 2014. Shale Hill is getting more people visiting – including OCR King, Hobie Call – and events like OCR World Championship sought out fixed OCR venue’s to hold what was considered THE world championship race for the year. New England saw many new events – who will hopefully hit their stride and become solid fixtures on our calendars.
Verdict: Pretty close.
More races will fail.
Yep. Hard Charge. Foam Fest. Not as many as 2013 saw fail, but it happened. Locally, we watched Amesbury Sports Park fail suddenly and shockingly too.
Verdict: Sadly, true.
“Real” athletes will notice.
Yep. Max King and pretty much every road runner than killed the Warrior Dash WC. Elite road runners like Rose Wetzel and Mooch. Triathletes like Ben Greenfield – and of course, the Spartan Pro Team being as “real” as it gets.
So – some hits, some close. The OCR world still grows, and I certainly didn’t predict that we’d end up with FOUR world championship events. Watch this space for a 2015 verdict post 🙂